Rabobank's food and agriculture research department recently said that the U.S. Almond industry will usher in a more optimistic outlook due to signs of recovery in global market demand for U.S. Almond. According to the Almond Board of California, shipments of sinian Almond in the United States increased more than 15 percent in May compared to the same month last year and are up more than 5 percent so far this season (August 2023 to May 2024).
The global economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic coincided with a record 3 billion pound harvest for California's sinian growers in 2020, resulting in a glut of sinian trees on the market. In the following three seasons, the carry-over stock of California sinian trees was between 600 million and 800 million pounds per season, and the harvest was between 2.5 billion and 2.8 billion pounds per season. Fumasi, Rabobank's North American head of food and agriculture research, believes that the current economic pressure caused by inflation is subsiding, while the dollar is still strong, California's batan industry will have a turnaround.
The council's May State of the Industry report shows that of the 3.1 billion pounds of U.S. Almond available for sale, more than 2.3 billion pounds have been shipped to global markets during the current season, and purchase prices received by growers have stabilized. Butte/Padre nuts, commonly used by candy makers, are up about 40 cents a pound, according to a farm representative at a Padan processing plant in central California. The price of standard, top-grade, shelled, large-grain snack grade, has recovered to about $2 a pound. He attributed the price increase to reduced supplies of padan ahead of the upcoming harvest. The California sinian industry expects to have less than 500 million pounds of unsold sinian this year, marking a significant decline in unsold carry-over inventory over the past three years. Fumasi said that the remaining products are not high-grade products, which has led to the stabilization of the price of the remaining padan.
According to the report's data, the total export volume of California sinian Almond so far this season has increased by 6% compared to the same period last quarter, exports to major overseas markets such as Asia Pacific and Europe have increased, and exports to Southeast Asia market have increased the most, reaching 46%.